Computing the Odds

I hate numbers. Avoid them like the plague. But just for today, I will grant an exception and follow along.

Found this on the NYT Opinionator blog. Written by Chris Suellentrop.

What would John McCain’s victory map look like? Nate Silver, the electoral
math wizard at FiveThirtyEight.com, used his computer to simulate the
presidential election 10,000 times on Sunday. McCain won 624 times. In the most
common result (occurring 169 times), “Obama wins everything that either Al Gore
or John Kerry won,” Silver writes. “McCain wins everything else.”

In the rest of McCain’s potential maps to victory, some patterns emerged. Silver writes:In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.