Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Buckeyes and other bellwethers

What an interesting study these states and counties would make. What is it about them? (h/t to Charles Mahtesian and Josh Kraushaar of Politico)

Among the 50 states, Missouri has a record of picking presidents that’s hard to match — the Show Me State has voted for the eventual winner in every election since 1904, with the exception of 1956, when it voted for Adlai Stevenson. Ohio’s not a bad predictor, either: It is almost always close to the national average, and no Republican has ever been elected president without carrying the Buckeye State. In fact, in the 14 presidential elections since 1952, Ohio has gone with the winner 13 times. Just three other states can boast that record of accuracy: Missouri, Nevada and Tennessee.

At the local level, according to Dave Leip’s Election Atlas, six bellwether counties have voted for the winning candidate in every presidential race dating back to 1960: Ferry County, Wash.; Eddy County, N.M.; Lincoln County, Mo.; Logan and Van Buren counties in Arkansas; and Vigo County, Ind.

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